And Chicago Super-Accurate Polling says....

If I were to run through my LinkedIn list and poll a pre-selected panel of 100 persons I would bet that I could come up with nearly any result for this years elections that I wanted.  You want a poll that shows President Obama winning 65-35 ?  Chicago Super-Accurate Polling can produce that poll.  You want a poll showing Governor Romney winning 65-35 ?  We can do that too.  Then Chicago Super-Accurate Polling will package up your poll as a press release and send it out to the media.  But would the media publish Chicago Super-Accurate Polling polls?  Well they seem willing to disseminate the results of polls done by Wenzel Strategies so why not us?

Who is Wenzel Strategies?  They seem to be the favorite pollster of Citizen's United and of The Family Research Council.   Well just because they are affiliated with far right organizations does not mean their polls are necessarily biased (does it?).   Frankly I had never heard of them until I noticed their name come up as polling in Ohio for the Presidential race.  Here are the most recent results of Ohio polls (per 538 blog)

Polls	Date	Dem	Rep	Margin
Ipsos (online)	11/02/12	47	45	Obama +2.0
NBC/Marist	11/01/12	51	45	Obama +6.0
CNN/Opinion Research *	11/01/12	47	44	Obama +3.0
We Ask America	11/01/12	50.2	45.8	Obama +4.4
Ipsos (online)	11/01/12	47	45	Obama +2.0
Rasmussen	11/01/12	49	49	Tie
Ipsos (online)	10/31/12	48	45	Obama +3.0
Wenzel Strategies	10/31/12	46	49	Romney +3.0
PPP	10/30/12	50	45	Obama +5.0
U. of Cincinnati/Ohio Poll *	10/30/12	48	46	Obama +2.0
Grove	10/29/12	48	45	Obama +3.0
SurveyUSA	10/29/12	48	45	Obama +3.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac	10/28/12	50	45	Obama +5.0
PPP	10/28/12	51	47	Obama +4.0
Rasmussen	10/28/12	48	50	Romney +2.0
Gravis Marketing	10/27/12	50	49	Obama +1.0
Mellman	10/25/12	49	44	Obama +5.0
American Research Group	10/25/12	49	47	Obama +2.0
CNN/Opinion Research *	10/25/12	48	44	Obama +4.0
Purple Strategies	10/25/12	46	44	Obama +2.0

Rasmussen has a history of polling a few points toward the R so these results are all pretty much in line - they show Obama with a 2 to 4 point lead in Ohio - with the exception of Wenzel.  Well maybe its just statistical noise in his sample.  So let's look at a few of Wenzel's other recent polls (polls again from 538).  Here is the Ohio Senate race of current Senator Sherrod Brown (D) vs State Treasurer Josh Mandel (R)

Polls	Date	Dem	Rep	Margin
Ipsos (online)	11/02/12	50	42	Brown +8.0
Ipsos (online)	11/01/12	50	42	Brown +8.0
Ipsos (online)	10/31/12	49	41	Brown +8.0
Wenzel Strategies	10/31/12	45	50	Mandel +5.0
U. of Cincinnati/Ohio Poll *	10/30/12	49	44	Brown +5.0
SurveyUSA	10/29/12	46	41	Brown +5.0
PPP	10/28/12	53	42	Brown +11.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac	10/28/12	51	42	Brown +9.0
Gravis Marketing	10/27/12	48	47	Brown +1.0
Rasmussen	10/23/12	48	44	Brown +4.0
U. of Cincinnati/Ohio Poll	10/23/12	51	47	Brown +4.0
SurveyUSA *	10/22/12	43	42	Brown +1.0
Suffolk	10/21/12	46	39	Brown +7.0
Quinnipiac	10/20/12	51	42	Brown +9.0
PPP	10/20/12	49	44	Brown +5.0
Angus Reid	10/20/12	45	39	Brown +6.0
Rasmussen	10/17/12	49	44	Brown +5.0
SurveyUSA *	10/15/12	43	38	Brown +5.0
Pulse Opinion Research	10/15/12	47	41	Brown +6.0

Here is the Missouri Senate race of current Senator Claire McCaskill (D) vs Congressman Todd Akin (R)

Polls	Date	Dem	Rep	Margin
We Ask America *	10/30/12	48.6	45.2	McCaskill +3.4
Mason-Dixon	10/25/12	45	43	McCaskill +2.0
PPP *	10/21/12	46	40	McCaskill +6.0
Rasmussen	10/17/12	51	43	McCaskill +8.0
Wenzel Strategies	10/13/12	45	49	Akin +4.0
YouGov	10/11/12	47	42	McCaskill +5.0
PPP *	10/03/12	46	40	McCaskill +6.0
Rasmussen	10/02/12	51	45	McCaskill +6.0

Are you seeing a pattern here?  I am not the only person to have noticed the "uniqueness" of Wenzel's polling results (see here) but I believe that I am the only person to have used it as the inspiration to found my own polling firm.

Could Wenzel be correct about the Presidential race in Ohio?  Doubtful but possible.  Could Wenzel be correct about the Ohio Senate race?  No.  And I am willing to put my money where my mouth is on this one with odds.  Fritz Wenzel - I will agree to pay you 10,000 USD if Mandel wins if you agree to pay me 5,000 USD if Brown wins.  In fact I will make that bet with anyone.  Any takers?

ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE:  While I am disappointed that Mr. Wenzel didn't respond to my bet - I am still willing to accept 5,000 USD from him now that Sherrod Brown has whooped Josh Mandel  :)