Egypt's currency crisis makes me wonder

WSJ:  Egyptian Pound Extends Its Slide as Concerns Mount
"The Egyptian pound sustained heavy losses Wednesday and the cost of insuring the country's sovereign debt against default jumped as concerns intensified over its economic and political turmoil.... At 6.39 Egyptian pounds to the dollar, the currency is down around 3% in the past week.  The cost of insuring Egyptian debt against default rose to its highest level in more than four months. Egypt's five-year credit-default swaps now stand at around 5.25%, up 0.37 percentage point on the day, data provider Markit said. That means it costs around 525,000 USD a year to insure 10 million USD of Egyptian sovereign debt for five years...At the third such auction Wednesday, the Egyptian central bank said it sold 75 million USD to banks at a cutoff price of 6.3510 Egyptian pounds to the dollar. That was up sharply from 6.2424 pounds per U.S. dollar at the inaugural auction Sunday.  Last week, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services cut Egypt's sovereign-credit rating by one notch citing the escalation of social and political tensions in the country. Egypt is now rated single-B-minus, six notches below investment-grade status."

So what I want to know is (1) who is offering to insure Egyptian debt right now?  and (2) what sort of model are they using to come up with  a probability of default?  A bank run - which is what a currency crisis really is - is a sunspot equilibrium.  There are two future states of the world - "bank run" and "no bank run". If depositors think "bank run" is likely to occur then they will go to the bank to withdraw their deposits and  "bank run" will occur.  If depositors think "bank run" is unlikely to occur then they will not go to the bank to withdraw their deposits and "bank run" will not occur.  It is a self fulfilling prophesy.  So how does one compute objective probabilities for these two states?

It is convenient to model the world like a roulette wheel with known probabilities, or even as a roulette wheel whose probabilities we don't know but that we can infer from historical data.   That makes the mathematics easy.  But the world is more complicated than that.  Sometimes there are no objective probabilities.