Sunday, August 26, 2012

Reviving Gold Standard Studied in Republican Platform

Wow that is going to be tough for the Democrats to beat.  Can you think of a
          (a) former national government policy which
          (b) was clearly more destructive than the Gold Standard
          (c) and that Democrats might have any conceivable possibility of supporting now

First let's examine what the Dems are up against.  I am currently working on a piece about the Gold Standard but here is a summary.  Each country that adheres to the Gold Standard  ties the size of their money supply to their holdings of Gold or things which can be converted into Gold.  The common belief among economic historians is that adhering to the Gold Standard was in large part responsible for Great Depression both in the US and in Europe.  The depressed UK economy of the 1920s, the US stock market bubble of the late1920s, the bank runs of 1931-32, and the inability for central banks both in the US and Europe to adequately react were all the direct result of adhering to the Gold Standard.  To put the Great Depression into context, over 1929-1932 US industrial production fell 64% from its prior peak.  In our current recession industrial production fell 17% from its previous peak.  The  combination of World War I reparations and the Gold Standard annihilated the German economy - which then set the stage for the rise of the Nazi Party, which directly led to World War II and then the Soviet takeover of Eastern Europe.   Here is a nice speech by current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke which describes current thinking on the cause of the Great Depression.

So a-priori it is going to be tough for the Democrats to beat the Gold Standard.  But lets look at a few of our worst former national policies and see if we can help the Democrats find a stinker as bad as the Gold Standard which they could support

Commission to Consider Reimposing the Smoot-Hawley Tariff  - the original bill was passed predominantly with Republican support .  The SHT acted to reduce US imports.  Our trading partners then reacted by restricting our exports.  However exports made up only about 5% of GDP in 1931 so - while the SHT certainly was not helpful -the impact on the economy was fairly small and certainly not as detrimental as the Gold Standard.  Might Democrats support it?  There is definitely a labor constituency within the Democratic party in favor of putting up trade barriers although there is also a constituency for expanding foreign trade - it depends what industry you are in. VERDICT:  Gold Standard was more destructive.  Might get some Democratic support.

Commission to Consider Reimposing Prohibition - the 18th Amendment and the implementing Volstead Act got both Democratic and Republican support - although Democratic President Woodrow Wilson opposed it.   It was never very effective and it is pretty clear that it was not as destructive as the Gold Standard - although much more colorful.  My guess is that there is more support within today's Democratic Party for legalization of marijuana then there is for prohibition of alcohol - but you might be able to find someone who is still in favor of the latter.  VERDICT:  Gold Standard was way more destructive.  Doubtful that it gets much Democratic support.

Commission to Consider Sending Weapons to Mujahideen to Be Used Against Our Enemies - yeah that did not work out so great.  Democratic President Carter started the program, Democratic Congressman Charlie Wilson was a prime driver of the policy, but it really ramped up during the Reagan administration - so both parties share blame in this one.  Was it as destructive as the Gold Standard?  In the aftermath of the Afghan-Soviet War warlords pillaged the country and then the horrific Taliban moved in.  Osama Bin Laden used Afghanistan as home base while planning his attacks on the US.  But there were plenty of other unstable countries that he could have probably based out of as well (Northern Yemen would be an obvious choice.)  So its not really clear that this policy had much impact on the final outcome of 9/11.  Would any Democrats support this policy today?   Doubtful but without the specific context it is hard to say.  VERDICT:  Gold Standard was more destructive.  Need more information to determine if there could be any Democratic support.

hmm we need to find some worse national policies

Commission to Consider Reverting Right to Suffrage Back to Landed White Males Over the Age of 21 - the original Constitution did not define who was eligible to vote, that was left to the states to define.  In most (but not all) states the rule was landed white males only.  What the Constitution did specify was that for purposes of apportionment non-free men were afforded 3/5ths person-hood.  While certainly unfair it is hard to define the exact destructive level of this policy.  There was no Democratic Party in 1787 so we don't know exactly how they would have voted on this.  However today this is going to be a non-starter with the Democratic Party.  Besides being an unfair policy - women and African Americans disproportionately identify as Democrats.   VERDICT:  Not clear which was more destructive.  No Democratic support.

Commission to Consider Re-Implementing Jim Crow Laws - Southern Democrats were in large part responsible for the Jim Crow Laws although Democrats were in large part responsible for overturning them at the federal level as well.  I don't see any chance of the Democratic Party supporting a return to Jim Crow.  (OTOH the Texas Republican Party Platform does call for overturning the 1965 Voting Rights Act ).  While it may be a moot question anyway - since Ds won't go for this - was 100 years of Jim Crow more destructive that the Great Depression and the rise of fasciism in Europe?  Close one - but I think  would still lean toward the Gold Standard as worse.  VERDICT:  Close call on which was more destructive.  No Democratic support.

hmmm it is really hard to find national policies that were clearly more destructive than the Gold Standard.

Commission to Consider Doing Something Militaristic In Vietnam - tough to figure out exactly what policy to propose

Commission to Consider Trying the Bay of Pigs Invasion Again - not detrimental enough.

Ok I got it!

Commission to Consider Re-Implementing Slavery - YES!  there is a national policy that was without a doubt more destructive than the Gold Standard.  But there is zero chance that the Democratic Party would be in favor of that today.

So frankly I can't come up with anything that fits my three required criteria
          (a) former national government policy which
          (b) was clearly more destructive than the Gold Standard
          (c) and that Democrats might have any conceivable possibility of supporting now
It looks like the Republican Party has the Democratic Party beat on this one (although we will certainly still accept suggestions).

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