Sunday, September 09, 2012

Russia Japan Gas Deal

Russia and Japan move Forward In Agreement on Natural Gas Deal

"VLADIVOSTOK, Russia — Gazprom, Russia’s state-controlled gas monopoly, signed an accord on Saturday with the government of Japan to move forward with plans for the construction of a $13 billion natural gas terminal here that would propel the Kremlin’s ambitions to multiply its business and trade ties in the Far East.   While the ultimate deal still hinges on reaching an agreement on the price Japan will pay for the natural gas, the accord is a crucial step toward increasing Russian energy exports at a time when Japan is eager to find alternatives to its largely shuttered, and politically embattled, nuclear power industry...Gazprom already sells natural gas to Japan, but another major deal would further reduce Russia’s reliance on Europe as its primary market. "

Russia is by far the worlds largest natural gas exporter and Japan is the world's largest natural gas importer.  Albeit in 2011 Russia was doing nearly all of her exports by pipeline while Japan was importing via LNG.  The chart below from the BP 2012 Statistical Review shows general worldwide gas flows.  Units are BB cubic meters.  Many good tables can be found here



In 2011 Japan imported approximately 20% of her natural gas from Qatar, approximately 20% from Malaysia, approximately 15% from Australia, and approximately 10% from Russia.  OTOH over the last year over 75% of Russia's gas exports went to EU/Turkey.

Should the US be concerned about this development?  Maybe.  Russia has a bad record with respect to strong-arming countries dependent on her energy exports (see here) and Japan's dependence on Iranian oil has reduced the effectiveness of the sanctions regime (see here).

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