Thursday, January 17, 2013

Egypt update

FT:  Worst behind us, says Egypt's bank chief
not much new info here.  A lot of reassuring talk from the new central bank chief.   But the markets are not buying it yet.

Reuters:  Egypt c.bank offers $75 mln at 11th currency auction
"The pound last traded at 6.58 against the dollar on the interbank market on Wednesday - 6 percent weaker than its value before the introduction of the central bank dollar auctions."

The pound seems to be holding around 6.60 which is hopeful - but we are not out of the danger zone yet.

Bloomberg:  Qatar Lifts Egypt Assistance by $2.5 Billion, Hegazi Says
"Yields on Egypt’s 5.75 percent dollar-denominated bonds due April 2020 fell one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 5.53 percent yesterday. Five-year credit-default swaps on Egyptian sovereign debt declined 18 basis points to 447 basis points...The average yield on one-year local-currency Egyptian Treasury bills climbed 18 basis points to 14.50 percent at the last debt auction this month, according to central bank data collated by Bloomberg. The government’s domestic borrowing costs have been rising since Standard & Poor’s cut Egypt’s credit rating to the same junk level as Greece Dec. 24 on the political turmoil. The average yield on one-year debt is still almost 40 percent higher than before the 2011 overthrow." 

Qatar's support is vital not only in giving Egypt liquidity until the IMF (and EU) come in with their loan(s) but also by Qatar demonstrating a willingness to back the pound they may dissuade speculators from betting against the pound.  Btw here is the EU story about the EU's loan package

AhramOnline:  EU offers Egypt 5 bn euros to support economy, democratic transition
"European Union President Herman Van Rompuy announced on Sunday that the EU had offered Egypt 5 billion euros (some USD6.7 billion) in grants, loans and concession loans  to support Egypt's ailing economy and short-term democratic transition, stressing that agreement on a proposed USD4.8 billion IMF loan would serve to encourage additional European financial support...The aid Van Rompuy mentioned is an essential part of the package Egypt expects to receive once it reaches a deal with the IMF...The European Investment Bank (EIB) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will each provide 2 billion euros (USD2.54 billion) in loans, the Egyptian presidency announced last November."

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