Friday, January 11, 2013

This is not going so well

On Wednesday we had this story
 Bloomberg:  Egypt Cuts Size of Dollar Auction After Getting Qatar Cash
"The central bank offered 50 million USD at the sale, down from 60 million USD yesterday and as much as 75 million USD in earlier sales. Banks could place bids for as much as 7 million USD each today, down from 9 million USD yesterday, according to a central bank announcement on Bloomberg...Qatar’s premier Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani said yesterday that his nation had doubled its deposits in Egypt’s central bank to 4 billion USD and raised its grants to Egypt by another 500 million USD, bringing its total support for Mursi’s government to 5 billion USD...With Gulf reserves of more than 1 trillion USD and Qatar’s interest in the success of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood administration, “it would be surprising to see Egypt run out of dollars,” Emad Mostaque, a strategist with Noah Capital Markets in the U.K., said in an e-mailed note. “Egypt can now comfortably make it through elections in a couple of months, after which the increasingly Islamist government will introduce economic reform through subsidy cuts and tax increases.”

However then on Thursday we had this story
Reuters:  Egypt Signals Qatar Loan Already Spent
"Egypt's central bank said on Thursday that a 2 billion USD loan from Qatar arrived in December, implying that the money had already been eaten up defending the currency before the foreign reserves crisis became public late last year...News of the Qatari loan broke this week, and markets assumed that Egypt therefore had a cushion that would allow it to keep the pound's depreciation orderly, supporting Egyptian assets...Asked by email on Thursday if the deposit arrived in January or December, Nidal Assar, the bank's sub-governor for investment and foreign relations, replied: "December"...Analysts said that the Qatari deposit's arrival in December indicated that switching out of pounds and into dollars had been much greater than thought over the last few weeks..."That shows the scale of dollarization in December and explains the shift to auctions on the part of the central bank," said Said Hirsh, an economist with Maplecroft...Egypt's ambassador to Turkey said Ankara had transferred 500 million USD into Egyptian coffers on Thursday, the Egyptian state news agency reported."

Then today we have this story
LA Times:  Governor of Egypt's Central Bank resigns
"Egyptian economic experts suggested that in recent weeks he [Egypt's Central Bank Gov. Farouk el-Okdah] may have been dissatisfied with the Morsi administration's economic outlook and its plans to devalue the pound. The Egyptian pound traded at 6.5 to the U.S. dollar on Thursday..."It is known that the International Monetary Fund usually asks countries who will borrow to devalue their currency, but I believe El-Okdah didn't want the fall of the pound to happen under his watch," said Magdy Sobhi, an economic expert at Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies."

Recall that 6.5 was the original level where President Morsi suggested the pound would fall to when they implemented the new pound auction plan two weeks back (see here).  It no longer appears that will be the landing spot.  If it becomes clear that the central bank will not defend 6.5 do we see a run on the pound?  From the below story it appears that the Egyptian pound is already trading at 7 in the black market.

NY Times:  Pound for Pound
this is a very good summary of the Egyptian currency crisis story btw.

(you may notice that I replace $ in front of figures with USD after figures - even when I quote ...that is because the Latex interpreter that I use interprets the dollar symbol as the indicator of an equation.  If anyone knows how to create the Latex symbol for dollar sign that would make this more readable.)

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